The 1964 Presidential election opposed incumbent President Lyndon B. Johnson, a democrat to Barry Goldwater, a republican. Johnson won the election with 61.1% of the popular vote. In the Deep South (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina), for the first time, more Southern Whites voted Republican than Democratic. Ever since, white southerners have voted Republican in presidential races.
The 1964 election is a symbol of the end of the traditional dichotomy of the Democrats as the party of the Confederate South and the Republicans as the party of Abraham Lincoln and reconstruction. How can the 1964 shift in southern presidential politics illustrate the opposition between determinist theories of voting behavior and rational choice theories?
Old South, New South : from party identification to the ‘changing American voter’
The end of the Civil War saw the rise of a term designating the segregationist southern U.S. states, politically lead by the Democratic party : the ‘Solid South’. In the aftermath of world war two the Democrats took a liberal turn with the implementation of the New Deal and later on the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Until 1964, white southerners kept voting for democrats, even if their opinions differed. In the 1936 Presidential election, Democrats got 97% of the popular vote in Mississippi. In the 1964 election, Republicans scored 87% in that same state.
The determinist theory of party identification developed by the School of Michigan, explains that voters are not fully aware of the cleavages and the different issues that are at stake. Their vote is influenced by habit and their families allegiance to a party (Campbell, 1960). Southerners voted for democrats independently of the parties ideology.
In 1964, when casting a vote for Barry Goldwater, it seems like southerners were aware of the candidate’s position. This shift can be explained by rational choice theories (Nie, 1976). The issue effect shows that the vote is influenced by the position of a candidate on issues. The segregationist South, realized that a few months earlier democrats voted for desegregation by implementing the Civil Rights Act, and that Republicans such as Barry Goldwater voted against it. In 1964, an aware ‘New South’ voted against racial justice and government action.
Candidate-centered politics and an appeal to white anxiety
Several reasons can explain the change of behavior of white southerners. The first one is the rise of candidate-centered politics (Wattenberg, 1991). This theory’s aim is to show that candidates became increasingly important in politics and that a strong personality can change the course of a race. This can be said about Barry Goldwater. As a candidate, he was often noticed for his flowery language. His statements were clear, hence voters would understand what he stood for. One of his campaign mottos was ‘extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue’. His strong conservative positions appealed to Southern voters, who for the first time, saw a clear divide between Democrats and Republicans.
The second reason that explains this change of behavior is the appeal made to white anxiety. G. Marcus believes that emotions have an important impact on voting behavior (Marcus, 2002). With the implementation of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, white Southerners feared that their socio-cultural order would disappear. Goldwater used that anxiety to fuel his campaign.
The change of the white Southerner vote that took place in 1964, was not sudden, it was the result of a long process. The 1964 election and its candidate Barry Goldwater can be seen as an initiating event that drew a clear line between the two national parties. This change was made possible by Goldwater’s strong personality, which made the divide even clearer.
The 1964 election illustrates how party identification plays a significant role in politics and among others, southern politics. It also provides an interesting example of the issue effect defended by rational choice theories.
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